Neal related that he had attended a dinner in Indiana attended by Congressman Mike Pence, who represents a district that includes Ft. Wayne.  A lawyer and former radio host, Pence may make a run for governor. The impetus would be if the current governor Mitch Daniels, decides to make a run for President.

Rich had lunch with Florida Congressman Allen West, who related that the biggest problem the GOP has is that the GOP has a tendency to create a candidate list based on seniority, which often isn’t the strongest slate.  West, like many Republicans, would like to see different candidates that will galvanize the GOP.  It is often referred to as the “Bob Dole problem,” referring to Bob Dole’s ill-fated presidential bid, which failed to excite the party.

Neal noted that Mitch Daniels would make a good candidate, as would Chris Christie, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney, although Romney still has baggage left over from his “RomneyCare” health program in Massachusetts.

Rich pointed out that although many people compare Romney’s plan to ObamaCare, Romney’s plan did not make it illegal for residents not to adopt the program.
Neal proposed that if the legality of ObamaCare could be fast tracked to the Supreme Court, it would severely damage the Obama re-election bid.  Although the Supreme Court isn’t expected to review ObamaCare until this October (fast tracking a legal brief to the Supreme Court has only occurred three times), the ruling could be issued in October 2012, just before the November elections.

Neal also mentioned Mike Huckabee as a potential GOP candidate, but he doubts if Huckabee will give up hosting a lucrative Fox show to make a presidential run.

Rich and Neal would both like to see a new group of GOP candidates that aren’t currently on the “radar screen.”   They don’t think that Palin, Bachmann or Trump can win a presidential race.

Kalley explained that the drug Avastin is a drug relied upon by an estimated 17,500 women with incurable mbc. Many women and their oncologists report great success with the drug, yet the FDA will remove the indication for mbc, subject to a final appeal by the drug’s manufacturer on June 28th & 29th at the FDA’s headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland.

“My wife’s life is at stake if this drug is taken off the market.  That’s why we have pursued a rehearing before the FDA for Avastin. I understand it is unprecedented for the FDA to consider an appeal on a drug,” said Kalley.

To push the issue and generate media coverage, Kalley has formed the
Freedom of Access to Medicines (www.fameds.org), an organization dedicated to the right of women to retain Avastin as a medical option for mbc.

Kalley is particularly puzzled by the FDA’s ruling since Avastin is approved for several other types of cancers, but is being withdrawn only for mbc. What’s more, the European version of the FDA continues to approve Avastin for mbc.

One of the major problems that will occur if the FDA discontinues approval of Avastin for mbc, is that it will no longer be covered by most insurance companies.  The cost for Avastin for a year exceeds $100,000.  Kalley hopes that the FDA will carve out some sort of exemption for current patients or to secure coverage for current patients under Medicare or under private health insurance.

“I don’t understand how the FDA justifies their move, but it has to do with a tradeoff of risk vs. rewards.  But Avastin has few side effects that would put a patient at risk,” said Kalley.
Kalley is looking for people to join the Freedom of Access to Medicine movement and participate in a planned rally on June 28th when the FDA will review Avastin.

The discussion turned to the pending vote on the debt ceiling, which sits at $14.3 trillion.  Williamson labeled the debt ceiling as “largely symbolic and that even if the debt ceiling is not raised the U.S. is not in any danger of defaulting on its debt.”

Williamson reminded listeners that President Obama voted against the raising of the debt ceiling when he was in Congress, but now is a leading advocate.

“Tax money will continue to come in even if the debt ceiling is not raised, but it may delay social security payments and could cause federal employees to be furloughed. We’re getting to the point where the bond market may be unwilling to buy up debt.  Right now the Federal government is buying up 70 percent of its debt.  This is illegal in the private sector. You would go to jail,” said Williamson.

One of the problems that is going to arise is that the interest rate on U.S. debt will go up dramatically, said Williamson. In addition, since many of the bonds are based on short-term notes, there may not be bond buyers willing to take it on.  If this debt level continues, it will soon account for 20 percent of the federal government’s total budget.  News that the S&P lowered its credit rating for the U.S. debt load wasn’t a big deal, according to Williamson, since most people anticipated that the S&P rating would be dropping.

“If the interest rate on our debt goes up to 8-9 percent, the debt load budget for the U.S. will resemble the Pentagon’s total budget. Even if you shut down the Pentagon and didn’t spend a dime on the military, it still wouldn’t be able to control the nation’s debt level,” said Williamson.
Williamson thinks that Paul Ryan has the right idea to address the debt level today before it’s too late. “You can’t keep kicking the can down the road.  We can’t let this administration just pass it onto the next administration,” said Williamson.

The culprit for our debt according to Williamson is the nation’s love affair with entitlements.  “If the entitlement plan can be fixed, this nation will be saved,” said Williamson.

“If the unemployment rate spikes, it will hurt the Democrats. Let’s face it. The truth is that government doesn’t create jobs.  Washington can’t manage the U.S. economy.  If it could, we wouldn’t have recessions or high unemployment,” said Williamson.

Finally, Williamson thinks that quantitative easing will end in June or early summer.  Quantitative easing refers to creating massive amounts of money out of thin air with the hope of getting the economy back on track.  Asbury refers to this as “vapor paper.”

Returning to the show as a guest was Kevin A. Hassett, the director of economic policy studies and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Before joining AEI, Mr. Hassett was a senior economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and an associate professor of economics and finance at the Graduate School of Business of Columbia University. He was an economic adviser to the Bush campaign in the 2004 presidential election, and was the chief economic adviser to Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) during the 2000 primaries. He has also served as a policy consultant to the U.S. Department of the Treasury during both the former Bush and Clinton administrations.

Hassett labeled the next election cycle as “one of the most important in our nation’s history”.  He predicted that if Obama is reelected and the U.S. continues on its current economic course, “this country will be locked into its current debt level forever.” He believes that the U.S. debt could account for 25 percent of GDP, which will be devastating for this country.
In discussing President Obama’s recent debt speech, Hassett believes that Obama is content on developing an intrusive government to the point where he was willing to nationalize an auto manufacturer.

“President Obama’s speech was the most un-collegial, horrific speech I have ever heard.  Obama put together a budget that did nothing to hold down debt.  Then he puts Paul Ryan in the audience…and then insults him.  It was venomous.  I think Obama has lost it.  He has no desire to move forward, and has no view on how he’s going to decrease the deficit,” said Hassett.

Hassett said he has a theory about why Obama delivered the speech he did: “Obama lost it because Paul Ryan is everything Obama said he was when he ran for office in 2008.  Now he’s obsessed with Ryan, and in a creepy way.”

Hassett noted that while Ryan is a Congressman, he is a former “policy guy” who understands economic issues.  He thinks Ryan’s plan works for many issues.

As for Medicaid, Hassett likes the Ryan approach, whereby states are given a block grant that allows them to spend the money any way they want on health care for the poor. This will force states to be clever about how they control costs.

Ryan rightfully goes after the Obama approach to Medicare for creating an independent panel to set national healthcare policies.  Ryan’s plan gives consumers a $15,000 subsidy that they can use to buy private health insurance.  Ideally, insurers will compete for consumer dollars and hold down costs.

“You know, Obama started off by playing Mr. Cool, but now we find out who he really is.  He is just another Chicago politico,” said Hassett.

As for the 2012 election, Asbury reminded listeners that a recent survey indicated that 44 percent of voters will not vote for President Obama under any circumstances.

Hassett noted that the current GOP slate of candidates is hard to handicap.  He anticipates that a governor will rise to the top, as they have during past elections.

He is a big fan of Pawlenty and Daniels, and thinks that Bachmann could be a contender even if the media portrays her as “a ditz.”  She’s a tax lawyer and people will be surprised how smart she is.”
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He thinks Trump could be a serious candidate, and he thinks Romney could make a good President, but thinks Romney will have a hard time distancing himself from the healthcare bill he passed in Massachusetts, which many people think looks like ObamaCare.

Ron has served as an advisor over the last 25 years to Republican Presidents, Governors, Members of Congress and a host of elected and appointed officials at every level of government. Starting his career in national politics in 1978 with the campaign for President George H.W. Bush, Ron has held major political posts in the White House and in the Republican Party.

After working as a National Political Operative for the 1980 Bush for President Campaign, Ron went on to serve President Reagan as Regional then National Political Director of the Republican National Committee and was appointed the National Campaign Director for Vice President Bush’s 1984 reelection campaign.

Reacting to President Obama’s recent speech about the economy and budget, Kaufman indicated he was very disappointed in the substance of the speech, and was particularly angry that Obama called the GOP’s budget leader Paul Ryan “un-American.”

“Paul Ryan is my new hero.  He has taken a serious approach in moving this country in the direction it needs to be going.  I think Obama hurt himself with this speech and did not give one specific proposal that will make our country better,” said Kaufman.
He does not understand why the media gets away with disparaging the Tea Party when Middle America is largely in line with the direction they want this country to go.  He believes that most people do not want to see out of control spending “stealing the future of our kids and grandkids.  They do not want to see business as usual in Washington.”
Neal Asbury agreed and maintained that “The Obama speech was a sign of weakness.  You could tell he is feeling insure with his base.  He resorted to attacking Republicans to appeal to his base. He simply didn’t look presidential.  He has become our flame thrower in-chief,” he said.

Kaufman thought that the speech was shaped by “Obama’s crowd in Chicago to protect his left flank.  He can’t afford to be attacked by his own flank or he has no chance in 2012,” added Kaufman.
He found it interesting that Nancy Pelosi was missing in action during the speech and he believes that the Obama administration is trying to marginalize her influence on the Democratic Party.

“Look, we’re all willing to do our fair share to make this country work.  But only if the guys in Washington do the right thing to control spending so our sacrifice means something. The U.S. has always risen to a challenge.  Are we going to be great or weaken ourselves like France?” asked Kaufman.

Kaufman is in the Mitt Romney election camp and he has been gratified by the overwhelming response Romney is getting from voters across the country.  Voters like his message that the U.S. has to tackle entitlements like social security and Medicare.

“We have to stop apologizing for America, and start standing up for America.  Mitt will do that,” said Kaufman.

When the discussion tuned to the healthcare program that Mitt Romney created when he was governor of Massachusetts and which has taken some knocks from media, Kaufman explained that despite perceptions to the contrary Romney’s healthcare plan had nothing in common with ObamaCare.  Kaufman explained that it was about coverage, not taking over a healthcare system.  Costs actually went down under Romney, according to Kaufman, and only rose when Romney was replaced by a Democratic governor.  Like many people, Romney characterized ObamaCare as unconstitutional because it takes the power away from states.

Kaufman is confident that Obama will be unable to win the big Midwestern states he carried in 2008. He thinks that Obama will lose Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which will sink any chance of Obama being able to get re-elected.

“The 2012 election will be about jobs and the economy. We have to get our spending under control and create a climate that encourages the private sector to create U.S. jobs – here, not in Europe or Asia. Mitt is the only candidate who has signed both the front and back of checks since he ran a company.  He understands our economic system and has the courage to make changes.  He is the right guy for the right time,” said Kaufman.

Neal was heartened by Kaufman’s remarks and added, “Our entrepreneurs create wealth and jobs.  There is unlimited opportunity when entrepreneurs succeed. When they succeed America succeeds.  Entrepreneurs expand the wealth pool for all Americans,” he noted.

While Kaufman is an unapologetic Romney supporter, he sees Pawlenty, Barbour and Daniels as serious GOP candidates. He sees Trump as a factor now, but doesn’t think he will be taken as a serious candidate and can’t win a general election.

“I’m a Tea Party guy.  The Tea Party is a good thing for this country. The Tea Party has given the GOP new life and Republicans would not be where they are today without the push by the Tea Party,” concluded Kaufman.

Neal related a chance meeting with former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty at the Atlanta airport. While Neal hadn’t considered Pawlenty a viable GOP candidate, after his encounter, Neal found Pawlenty to be smart and engaging. “He thinks that the U.S. is an exceptional country and dismisses media that think America has lost its leadership position. He also is a supporter of small business.  I liked him and I think he has a good message,” related Asbury.

Roffman likes Donald Trump’s message and is impressed that Trump is willing to put $600 million of his own money into his campaign. “Trump isn’t intimidated by anyone and has the business and finance background, unlike our current President,” said Roffman.

Asbury added that he liked Trump’s candid reflection on George Bush, blaming his term in office as the impetus for allowing Obama to take the presidency for the Democrats.

In general, Roffman wants to see the GOP go down a different road, He thinks the GOP needs new candidates from the he current roster of “retreads,” who he thinks will polarize the GOP and Independents.  He thinks this could hand the presidency back to Obama.

“When you think about it, Obama and Sarah Palin are bookends of the political spectrum.  We are a centrist country and we need to get back to the center,” said Asbury.

Roffman liked Mitt Romney in 2008 and was disappointed that he didn’t go further in the nomination process.  He attributes his failure to his ill-fated healthcare plan in Massachusetts.  “He’s a good man and smart, but I don’t think he’ll get enough votes to win the general election,” said Roffman.

Asbury thinks that a Chris Christie/Marco Rubio ticket is unbeatable in 2012, but doesn’t think Christie will run until 2016.

Roffman would like to see Jeb Bush run and thinks he would make a great  candidate, although Bush, too, indicated he won’t run in 2012.

Making her first appearance on the show was Tami Overby, vice president for Asia at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  As vice president, Overby is responsible for developing, promoting, and executing programs and policies relating to U.S. trade and investment in Asia. She works closely with Chamber member companies, business coalitions, AmChams, government leaders, and business executives to achieve their business objectives in this very important part of the world.

“While Japan has some debt problems, most of the debt is held by the Japanese people, so a Japanese default is not an issue that could impact the global economy.  Despite negative coverage by media, Japan is open for business.  While Fukushima was hit hard, it is not a manufacturing center, so most major Japanese companies are in business,” said Overby.

Overby is proud that U.S. companies have pledged more than $200 million to Japan to help with the recovery effort.  And despite news to the contrary, U.S. companies doing business in Japan are not sending their employees back to America.  U.S. companies are heeding the advice that to be safe from the nuclear fallout at Fukushima, they are recommending employees keep at least 50 miles from the nuclear plant site.

One of the serious consequences of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami is that 20 percent of the electrical power is off the grid, resulting in rolling blackouts.  There also are severe fuel shortages and supply chain operations are reduced.   Overby noted that no country with a developed economy like Japan has ever faced the disaster the country is facing.

Ironically, Overby sees a new economic renaissance for Japan arising from its current situation.  Japan was in need of restructuring due to political infighting that has held back the economy.  Japan will need to reexamine its approach to the economy as it struggles with its current challenges. She equates this with the recovery that took place in South Korea after it was facing economic collapse in the 1990s.  It was a wake-up call that revived the manufacturing base.

Picking up on the Korean theme, Overby predicts that the South Korean Free Trade Agreement will be passed before the July 1 Congressional recess since it has bipartisan support, which includes key trade unions.  Overby believes that the union support for the Korean Free Trade Agreement is unprecedented.

Asbury was heartened by the news and reminded listeners that 50,000 American servicemen and women died during the Korean War so that Korea could remain free. “It’s about time this sacrifice was paid back by opening the Korean market to U.S. companies,” said Asbury.

Overby believes that in addition to the South Korean Free Trade Agreement, the remaining two free trade agreements for Colombia and Panama under consideration by Congress will all be passed at the same time.  She did warn that unlike South Korea, trade unions are holding up final passage of the trade agreement with Colombia and Panama.

“Asia is a terrific market for U.S. products.  American products are the best in the world and they deserve greater access to Asian countries. We are behind Canada, Australia, China and Chile, who all have free trade agreements with Korea. A free trade agreement gives America a level playing field with other countries. We hope that after Korea, we can pass the Trans Pacific Partnership, opening American products to other Asian countries,” said Overby.  “More than 95 percent of the global marketplace is outside the U.S. border.  The global economy pie is getting bigger, but America is not getting a big enough slice,” added Overby.

One of those Asian countries that are in America’s vision for a free trade agreement is China. Asbury reminded listeners that despite the gaping trade disparity between the U.S. and China, Mexico buys more American products than China and Japan combined.  “It’s all about market access.  China can ship its products duty free to America while we have to pay stiff tariffs in China.  We need a free trade agreement with China right now,” said Asbury.

Lakely weighed in on the tragedy in Japan and the resulting nuclear accident. He wants to see domestic and international media calm down about the supposed health dangers to America, which is creating panic in Japan and America.  There is no nuclear cloud that will reach the atmosphere or damage the oceans.

“There are 444 nuclear plants around the world, and other than Chernobyl, which was poorly designed, not a single person has been killed by nuclear fallout from a plant. Coal plants are far more dangerous than nuclear
plants. We need a common sense approach from Washington about our energy policy,” said Lakely.

He noted that the Fukushima plant is 40 years old, and the industry has learned much since then about safety. For example, nuclear fuels can be reprocessed so they can be used again, negating the need to bury spent nuclear fuels.

Turning to the budget, Lakely is naturally concerned that the U.S. has amassed unsustainable levels of debt.  Last month alone, $72 billion was added to the nation’s debt. Lakely wants to see the Congress present a budget that people can understand. He admonished the Obama administration for not creating a budget but rather spending all the money in the treasury and then “putting everything on credit cards.”

“This country needs political courage.  Americans understand that the country is in trouble.  They know that social programs need to be sacrificed to stop out of control spending.  If a budget is plainly presented and
people understand it, they will do what’s necessary to pare down the nation’s debt — even if it means changing the retirement age or reducing social security. They don’t want to pass the debt down to their children and
grandchildren,” said Lakely.

Lakely would like to see the Republicans “bite the bullet and take the heat for massive spending cuts.  If they’re going to get slammed for small cuts, they might as well make the bold bigger cuts that are needed.”

Joining the show was The Honorable Jeffrey S. Merrifield, a Commissioner to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) since 1998. During his time on the Commission, Mr. Merrifield has actively supported nitiatives to improve the transparency, efficiency, and effectiveness of the NRC’s regulatory programs. An active participant in the preparation of the NRC’s revised Strategic Plan he also pioneered the creation of a vision statement for the agency. Commissioner Merrifield has invested considerable time in familiarizing himself with the operations of NRC licensees through visits to all 104 operating power reactors, as well as sites undergoing decommissioning and countless nuclear materials facilities.

Merrifield started the show by putting the Fukushima nuclear plant accident in perspective. The danger level for nuclear plants ranges from 1-7, with Chernobyl categorized as a seven and Three Mile Island categorized as a five. The Fukushima accident has been categorized at about a six.

“You can’t equate Fukushima with Chernobyl, where its poor design and lack of a containment wall resulted in a massive fire and explosion that sent radioactive plumes high enough to get into the jet stream. The Fukushima accident isn’t anywhere near this level,” said Merrifield.

Merrifield wanted to downplay the dangers to the public resulting from Fukushima. While there is understandable concern, he doesn’t anticipate a measurable level of radiation impacting the health of the citizens of Tokyo, which is 150 miles from Fukushima. He noted that after Three Mile Island, people living 20 miles from the reactor did not experience any dire health effects. Even Chernobyl, the world’s worst nuclear accident, which killed 50 workers within the plant, did not create the health concerns anticipated by experts among the communities nearby the plant.

While Merrifield believes that U.S. reactors are the safest in the world, he understands why the nuclear commission is concerned about the safety of some older plants. Merrifield noted that after Three Mile Island, the U.S.implemented the strictest safety standards in the world, which includes emergency contingency plans that cover power interruption, the drop of water levels in nuclear spent rod pools and a reduction in the water level covering the reactor’s core (the exact breakdown that occurred at the Fukushima plants). All U.S. plants also have a hard piping system that will bring water directly into the plant if water levels drop exposing the plant to hydrogen build up.

While Merrifield sympathized with workers at the Japanese plant, he was puzzled why they waited so long to ask for help from American scientists. He thinks that the plant’s management waited too long to address the drop in water levels.

Merrifield reminded listeners that the 140 nuclear plants operating in the U.S. provide 20 percent of the nation’s energy supplies. He applauded Department of Energy Secretary Chu for advocating that the U.S. nuclear energy program must continue.

“We have to put the U.S. nuclear energy program in perspective. Nuclear energy is carbon free, it is safe and it is a low cost power source. Despite the accident in Japan, all three of these benefits still hold true,” concluded Merrifield.